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Monday 21 May 2012

New global armed conflict may start any moment

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The crisis in the relations between China and the Philippines has been balancing on the edge of a military conflict for more than a month. China managed to find a way out of the problem. However, the crisis still remains unsolved. Moreover, the Philippines tries to have the USA involved in the conflict (there is The Mutual Defense Treaty Between the Republic of the Philippines and the United States of America, signed on August 30, 1951). China in its turn wants to win Russia's support. The two countries conducted large-scale military drills in the Yellow Sea during the peak of the conflict. The situation began to escalate in the South China Sea on April 10, when a Philippine warship detected Chinese fishing boats near the disputed island of Huangyan. Philippine servicemen attempted to inspect the holds of the Chinese vessel. However, Chinese military boats arrived at the scene very soon and blocked the Philippine warship. China claims that its sovereignty over the island is based on the fact that it was China, who discovered the island in 1279 during the reign of the Yuan Dynasty (1291-1368). In addition, China substantiates its territorial claims with three international agreements. It goes about the Paris Peace Treaty between the USA and Spain from 1898, the Washington agreements between Spain and the USA from 1900 and the agreement between Britain and the USA from 1930, where the boundaries of Philippines territorial waters were limited to the 118th meridian of eastern longitude Greenwich. Print version Font Size Send to friend In 1898, after the Spanish-American War, Spain delivered the Philippines, Cuba, Guam and Puerto-Rico to the United States for $20 million in accordance with the Paris Peace Treaty from 1898. To counter China's arguments, the Philippines rely on the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea from 1982. The document set the sea border of the economic zone of the country at the distance of 200 miles. In this context, the above-mentioned disputed island is located only 230 kilometers far from Luson Island - the main island of the Philippines. The country's administration raised the question of the sovereignty of the island in July 2011. The country has been taking measures to solve the problem since that time. There were new adequate maps published, discussions were conducted at the parliament. Now the government has ventured to stand up and struggle openly. Having expressed concerns on the diplomatic level, the Philippines and the USA joined forces to conduct military drills in the water area of the disputed island. There were two aircraft carriers, two warships, 4,500 US and 2,300 Philippine servicemen participating in the drills that started on April 16 and ended April 27. The Chinese responded. On April 23, they also started large-scale drills in the Yellow Sea, albeit with the participation of the Russian navy. There were 25 various vessels involved in total, as well as 13 aircraft, nine helicopters and two special military units. Was it the beginning of the new standoff within the scope of the Cold War? The Cold War has started indeed. All the doubts about it have disappeared after Russia's Putin and USA's Obama refused to attend international forums on the territory of the "partner" state. No one has probably noticed that, but the world was standing on the brink of a new international armed conflict in April. Chinese bloggers were posting messages on the Internet saying that units of the Chinese army were set on high alert (the second level on four-level scale). Major General Luo Yuan of China's People's Liberation Army stated that China favored a diplomatic solution of the conflict while there is a chance for reconciliation. However, the official added, it did not mean that China refused from military methods of solving the problem. The neighboring states, the general said, should think about the consequences, when they decide to scoff at China. Moreover, a Chinese TV host said on one of the country's central channels that the Philippines were the Chinese territory. Afterwards, the Chinese Embassy in Manila made an announcement about "mass anti-Chinese demonstrations." Chinese airlines halved the number of flights over the "drop in the tourist flow to the Philippines," Xinhua agency reported. To crown it all, an official spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry called upon the Philippines to respect China's territorial sovereignty and to refrain from the actions which could aggravate the situation. Beijing was prepared for any form of the escalation of the standoff, the official added. Against such a background, the minister for foreign affairs and the defense minister of the Philippines flew to Washington in the beginning of May. In the US capital, the officials conducted the meeting with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. Most likely, the US officials asked their Philippine counterparts to slow down with their ambitions. Clinton stated as a result of the meeting that the USA would not be taking anyone's part in the conflict in the South China Sea. That was obviously only verbal distancing because the USA and the Philippines are members of the mutual defense treaty. Under this treaty, the two countries undertake to defend each other both in case of external aggression against their territories and in the Pacific region on the whole. The US, being an ally of the Philippines, will not be sitting on its hands if China conducts a military operation. This is what the majority of Philippines politicians say, and they want to check both sides. They want to find out whether the Chinese are ready to launch combat actions, and if the Americans are ready to support the Philippines in the military conflict. However, Washington has already conducted a provocative operation like that in South Ossetia. It did not work with Russia, and it may not work with China either. China also has the sad experience of the struggle for Taiwan. The situation improved after China's department for fishing announced a ban on fishing for 2.5 months in the northern part of the South China Sea, including the waters around Huangyan Island. The Philippines do not fish in the area, so the ban touches upon 90,000 Chinese fishing boats. A Chinese official assured that it as a common measure that the Chinese authorities take every year. The move, he added, had nothing in common with the current escalation in the dispute. It is clear, though, that the decision is directly related to the problem. In addition, China's Defense ministry officially rebutted the information saying that Chinese military units and navy had been set on high alert. The problem is not going to vanish by itself, of course. China rejects the suggestion from the Philippines to go to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations or to the UN. Chinese officials say that the laws about the redistribution of spheres of influence between colonial powers were not retroactive. No international agreements can abolish such laws, Chinese politicians claim. A lot will depend on the position of the United States that has been neutral so far. However, China's strategic growth raises serious concerns with Washington. In the event the country refuses from Deng Xiaoping's strategy of waiting in the shadow, then the Celestial Empire will become serious competition for Washington both economically and politically. There is something to struggle for indeed. The shelf of the disputed islands is rich with oil and gas.

Mladic instigated ethnic cleansing in Bosnia, UN court told

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Former Bosnian Serb army commander Ratko Mladic went on trial accused of carrying out a brutal campaign of ethnic cleansing and Europe’s worst massacre since World War II. Mladic’s trial opened at the Yugoslav war crimes court in The Hague, also watched in a live broadcast in Sarajevo by widows and other relatives of victims of the 1995 massacre at Srebrenica where almost 8,000 Muslim men and boys were allegedly murdered by Mladic’s forces. “Ratko Mladic assumed the mantle of the criminal goal of ethnically cleansing Bosnia,” prosecutor Dermot Groome told International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. Now 70, Mladic has been indicted on 11 counts of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity for his role in the Balkan country’s brutal 1992-95 war that killed 100,000 people and left 2.2 million homeless. “The prosecution will present evidence that will show without reasonable doubt the hand of Mr Mladic in each of these crimes,” Groome said. Mladic, dressed in a dark grey suit and patterned tie, sarcastically applauded judges as they entered the courtroom, but was not asked to speak during the hearing. Before the television cameras started rolling, Mladic made a “throat-slitting” towards the public gallery where victims’ relatives were seated, said one widow of the 1995 Srebrenica massacre. “At one moment, Mladic looked towards the public. I think he has recognized us, the women of Srebrenica, and then made a gesture moving his hand over the throat, meaning ‘I will slit your throat’,” Munira Subasic told AFP. Subasic heads the “Mothers of Srebrenica” organisation representing widows and victims of the Srebrenica massacre when 8,000 Muslim men and boys were killed by Mladic’s troops in July 1995. Nerma Jelacic, the UN tribunal’s spokeswoman, told Serbian state agency merely that “there has been a communication between the defendant and people at the gallery.” The former Bosnian Serb commander had pleaded not guilty to the charges at an earlier court hearing last June. He faces life imprisonment if convicted. In his opening address, the prosecutor displayed population maps showing the ethnic distribution in Bosnia before and after the war, explaining how mixed or predominantly Muslim municipalities became exclusively Serbian after a campaign of ethnic cleansing he said was one of Mladic’s “strategic objectives”. Groome said the very first objective had been to “separate the Serbs from the other two national communities” — Bosnians and Croats. “Thousands of families were forced from their land,” Groome added, as he told the court how groups of non-Serbs were executed and others forced to jump from a bridge by soldiers under Mladic’s command. Presiding judge Alphons Orie warned both Mladic and people sitting in the public gallery not to make eye contact during the trial when several comments including the word “vulture” were uttered. Prosecutors also hold Mladic responsible for the 44-month siege of Sarajevo where his forces waged a “terror campaign” of sniping and shelling that left an estimated 10,000 people dead, the vast majority of them civilians. “Sarajevo was a model of diversity, a cosmopolitan city,” said Groome. “They (Bosnian Serb leaders) sought to destroy it, to sever the city in half, with the Serbs living in one part and the non-Serbs in another part.” It was in pursuit of a “Greater Serbia” that Mladic allegedly also ordered his troops to “cleanse” other Bosnian towns, driving out Croats, Muslims and other non-Serbs. After the war, Mladic continued his military career but went into hiding in 2000 after the fall of his ally in Serbia, Slobodan Milosevic. Indicted for war crimes, he was on the run until May 2011 when he was arrested at a relative’s house in Lazarevo, northeastern Serbia and flown to a prison in The Hague several days later. Two days ahead of the trial, his lawyers filed a request for a six-month adjournment, saying they needed more time to prepare a defence. The judge said Wednesday the court was still considering whether to postpone the case, on the grounds that the prosecution made a “significant error” which could affect the course of the trial. During a string of pre-trial hearings, the former general complained of his poor health and asked Orie if he could wear his military uniform. Defence lawyer Branko Lukic said Mladic suffered three strokes in 1996, 2008 and 2011 and was partly paralysed on his right side. Mladic however appeared in better shape than at his first appearance last June when he told the court he was a “sick man”. Lukic told journalists Wednesday that Mladic had had extensive medical and dental surgery since his capture, saying “he lost a lot of teeth” during his years as a fugitive. At the end of the first day’s hearing, Lukic said “the prosecution has to tell the story and the story is of course very ugly… Our task is to show what they say is not true.” The trial was due to continue on Thursday, before resuming on May 29.

96 soldiers killed in suicide blast

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Ninety-six soldiers were killed when a suicide bomber blew himself up at a military parade rehearsal in Yemen's capital. Al Qaida's Yemen branch claimed responsibility for the attack. The group said in an emailed statement that it targeted defence minister Major General Mohammed Nasser Ahmed, who arrived at the heavily secured city square to greet the assembled troops just minutes before the blast ripped through the area but escaped unhurt. Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula vowed: "This is only the beginning of Jihad." It said that its militants will continue staging attacks against the Yemeni leadership. The bombing was meant to take revenge for the Yemeni government's military offensive in a part of southern Yemen seized by the militant movement last year. A statement in the name of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi said: "The war on terrorism will continue until we win, whatever the sacrifices are." Military officials said the suicide bomber in Sanaa was a soldier taking part in the drill, lining up with fellow troops at a main square in the capital, not far from the presidential palace. He belonged to the central security, a paramilitary force commanded by ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh's nephew Yahia. President Hadi has been trying to wrest control of the security forces away from Saleh, who is still seen to exercise much influence from behind the scenes. The bombing left a scene of carnage, with scores of bleeding soldiers lying on the ground as ambulances rushed to the scene. Ahmed Sobhi, one of the soldiers who witnessed the explosion, said: "This is a real massacre... The place turned into hell. I thought this only happens in movies." The bomber detonated his explosives minutes before the arrival of the defence minister and the chief of staff, who were expected to greet the troops. The drill was a rehearsal for a parade for the celebration of Yemen's National Day.

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